Inter‐Model Spread of North Tropical Atlantic Trans‐Basin Effect Substantially Biases Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Multiyear Prediction

نویسندگان

چکیده

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific (TP) has world-wide climate and economic influences; hence, improving its prediction is of great interest. Recent modeling studies suggested that north Atlantic can influence TP SST prediction. However, models are subject to biases both Pacific, it remains an open question whether these affect trans-basin linkages SST. To investigate this issue, we apply linear inverse observations models. We find removing forcing indeed strongly lowers multiyear skills Models show a large spread effect, which leads markedly different skills. Our study highlights necessity narrow inter-model for more reliable

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1944-8007', '0094-8276']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098620